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From: Soljak Michael Michael.Soljak@mail.ehh-ha.nthames.nhs.uk Date: Wed, 17 Apr 2002 13:11:58 +0100 To: "'Bandolier@pru.ox.ac.uk'" Subject: CABG Mortality Your article in Bandolier 98 on CABG mortality quotes US data. However Bandolier and its readers may be interested to know that the Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain & Ireland (address c/o RCS) publishes Annual Reports from the National Adult Cardiac Surgical Database (the latest Report I have is for 1999-00, published May 2001). This is available from publishing@e-dendrite.com at a hefty cost of £80 (I do not know of an on-line edition). The cardiac surgeons have been running their Patient Analysis & Tracking System (PATS) for some years now and have a goldmine of data. The Report not only covers casemix and outcome data, and comparisons with the USA, but also provides excellent explanations and results of statistical risk stratification techniques. These include simple and complex Bayesian models and Cumulative Sum ((CUSUM) analyses, and how they can be applied to performance monitoring. As the publication of league tables (or hopefully control charts or plots) become more widespread we will need to become more familiar with these techniques. As usual, there is no simple answer to problems of risk stratification, but we certainly need to exert pressure so that more clinical information sytems like PATS,incorporating these features, are developed. PATS also provides through these "feedback loops" the facility to predict outcomes for individual patients so that patients can be more involved in decisionmaking. Dr Michael Soljak FRACP FAFPHM FFPHM Previous Post (still contactable via this address): Director of Public Health & Health Strategy Ealing Hammersmith & Hounslow Health Authority 1 Armstrong Way Southall Middlesex UB2 4SA Tel 020-8893-0115 Fax 020-8893-0398 Mobile 07774-174-658 email michael.soljak@mail.ehh-ha.nthames.nhs.uk New Post: Strategic Intelligence Unit NW London Strategic Health Authority 170 Tottenham Court Road LONDON W1P 0HA email: michael.soljak@nwlondon-stha.nhs.uk (from 22/4/02)